Although 4G will remain the main driver of growth in the mobile telephony market in sub-Saharan Africa by the end of the current decade, the GSMA expects 5G to capture 16% of all subscriptions at this time.
The adoption rate of smartphones in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 87% in 2030 from 51% in 2022, according to a report published on February 27 by the Global Association of Mobile Operators and Manufacturers (GSMA).
Titled “The Mobile Economy 2023”, the report clarifies that Sub-Saharan Africa is among the regions that will experience a surge in the adoption of mobile smart phones globally by the end of the current decade alongside Asia-Pacific and Latin America, thanks to the falling prices of these devices and the high proportion of young people in its population. Most new mobile phone users are indeed digital natives, who use their devices for multiple activities beyond traditional voice calls and texting.
Globally, smartphone adoption is expected to reach 92% by the end of the decade from 76% in 2022.
The report also reveals that the average monthly mobile data traffic in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to almost quadruple by 2028 to reach 18 gigabytes (GB) per user against 4.6 GB in 2022. This growth in mobile data consumption will be driven in particular by greater coverage by mobile broadband networks, accessibility of smartphones and development of the mobile gaming and video streaming markets.
Average monthly mobile data traffic in Sub-Saharan Africa will, however, remain below the global average, which will increase from 15 GB per user in 2022 to 45 GB in 2028.
The World Association of Mobile Telephone Operators and Manufacturers also indicates that the number of subscriptions to fifth-generation (5G) networks south of the Sahara should reach 213 million in 2030, i.e. 16% of all subscriptions to mobile telephone networks by this deadline, compared to only 1% in 2022.
Marked decline in 2G and 3G networks
4G will remain the main contributor to new subscriptions in the region until 2030. It should represent around 47% of mobile subscriptions by this horizon compared to 22% in 2022.
3G will see its share fall from 55% in 2022 to 35% in 2030. 2G, which still represented 22% of total subscriptions in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022, is also expected to decline rapidly as operators migrate their subscribers to the 4G and 5G networks. Its share should be limited to 2% of total subscriptions at the end of the current decade.
6.3 billion subscribers in 2030
The report also states that the world had 5.4 billion unique subscribers to mobile networks, all generations combined, at the end of 2022. This figure is expected to reach 6.3 billion in 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa and India will account for almost half of new subscribers worldwide by the end of the decade, as other more mature markets approach saturation. In all regions, it is especially young people and rural populations who will constitute the largest contingents of new subscribers.
On another level, the World Association of Mobile Operators and Manufacturers expects the sector to generate 5% of global GDP in 2030, representing an economic added value of around $6 trillion.
Source: Agence Ecofin
